Is it possible to intercept a nuclear missile

Earlier post—Cold War efforts focused on a wider range of potential threats. They have reasons to think this. On November 16, , a U. Though the MDA has not clarified the nature of the specific target missile, distances between Kwajalein Atoll and the Pacific Ocean northeast of Hawaii fall short of the roughly 8, kilometer 5, mile distance between North Korea and Hawaii, and the similar distance between North Korea and the northwestern United States the shortest distance between a notional ICBM launch site in North Korea and a target in the 48 contiguous U.

Because missile reentry vehicle speeds increase with range, this test would not have been appropriately representative of a North Korean ICBM. Moreover, the target missile likely did not incorporate sophisticated, or even rudimentary, countermeasures or other missile defense defeat measures, including multiple warheads.

Overall, the November 16 test marks just the third successful demonstration of a U. Just like their counterparts in Washington, officials in Moscow, Beijing, and even Pyongyang plan for the future and prepare for worst-case scenarios.

Navy destroyer is nominally capable of destroying an ICBM. Moreover, they may reason that any U. As implied by the name, Aegis Ashore transports the ship-based sensors, computers, and software suites to a fixed, land-based installation. Moreover, even though the inventory of delivered SM-3 Block IIA interceptors remains low today , the available Mark 41 VLS inventory will likely inform threat perceptions in these countries.

According to Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the Mark 41 VLS, at least 11, such cells have been delivered, including to ten non-U. Prior to FTM, a working assumption for these states might have been that the full scope of extant U. Despite U. Even though the SM-3 Block IIA covers a wide swathe of territory, vessels carrying the missile may not be appropriately positioned at all times. While, in a crisis, the U. Navy may be able to divert some destroyers to undertake a BMD mission by positioning for a North Korean ICBM launch, for example, this will not be possible in all cases.

Second, because Mark 41 VLS cells are a finite resource, assigning SM-3 Block IIA interceptors will come at the opportunity cost of these ships being able to undertake a strike mission, which may bear on pre-war deterrence in certain scenarios. As James Acton notes , other missions for Arleigh Burke destroyers, such as supporting and defending U.

Whether laser or missile-based, a space-based interceptor would also need to accomplish a gargantuan number of detailed tasks within a three-minute window. Some experts think that since this is all happening so fast, the satellite would need to work autonomously, which is a scary prospect considering how many would be in the sky at one time.

Finally, politics should be considered. The two states might retaliate by refining their launch systems to make nukes more resilient during the boost phase or they might ramp up their abilities to destroy satellites in orbit. And Congress has expressed worry before about missile defense leading to an arms race. But for others, mutually assured destruction is a moral dilemma.

Is it necessary to threaten the deaths of millions to maintain peace? Of course, none of this is set in stone, or written into policy yet. The MDR only calls for a study, which is supposed to be completed six months from now. In the meantime, the Pentagon plans to move ahead with a far less controversial space-based defense layer: satellites equipped with infrared sensors that can at least track the full trajectory of a launched missile.

But some engineers are trying to develop new hypersonic vehicles that can glide a nuke to its location. These are particularly difficult to trace, but an upgraded constellation of satellites could track them down. For now, defending against threats from above will still have to start from the ground up. Cookie banner We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from.

By choosing I Accept , you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. Filed under: Policy. Linkedin Reddit Pocket Flipboard Email. A rocket arcs into space during launch Image: SpaceX. In practical terms too, Dwyer also doubts that North Korea will be able to develop a large, reliable arsenal of ICBMs and nuclear warheads, but he does see one potential nightmare scenario.

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